ST vs MR Match Analysis
The 33rd match of the Big Bash League 2026 brings Sydney Thunder and Melbourne Renegades to Sydney Showground Stadium in a crucial mid-season contest. With both teams under pressure, timing, venue, and momentum make this fixture tactically significant.
Sydney Thunder arrive with a worrying sequence of defeats, having lost their last five matches. Their previous outing against Brisbane Heat highlighted familiar issues: despite posting 180/6, the bowling could not defend the total as Heat chased comfortably. Captain David Warner remains their batting pillar, while Daniel Sams and Chris Green must translate roles into sustained match impact.
Melbourne Renegades have been marginally steadier, with two wins in their last five, though their most recent defeat to Melbourne Stars exposed middle-overs fragility. Chasing 167, they were outplayed comprehensively. Still, the Renegades possess a deeper bowling group and power hitters such as Josh Brown, making them better equipped to exploit late-match situations.
Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades Match Details
Match | Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades | 33rd Match | Big Bash League 2025-26 |
|---|---|
Date | 12/01/2026 (Monday) |
Time | BDT 2:15 PM / PKT 1:15 PM / INR 1:45 PM |
Format | T20 |
Venue | Sydney Showground Stadium |
Recent performance | Sydney Thunder – L L L L L, Melbourne Renegades – L L W W L |
Live Streaming Details | Click here to watch the ST vs MR Live Stream on Sports Live Hub (SLH) |
Sydney Showground Stadium Pitch Report
Sydney Showground Stadium
For the 2025–26 season, the Sydney Showground surface has offered a balanced but demanding contest. Early overs provide enough pace for stroke-making, yet the pitch increasingly grips as the game progresses, allowing spinners and disciplined seamers to dictate terms. Scores in the mid-160s remain competitive, but batting second can become complex if bowlers exploit variable bounce and slower lengths.
Weather Report
Weather conditions indicate a cooler evening with the possibility of late precipitation following a hot preceding day. Temperatures are expected between 17°C and 22°C. Such conditions could introduce light moisture, potentially aiding swing and grip for bowlers. Dew is not projected as a major factor, but any passing shower could enhance bowling effectiveness and complicate chasing strategies.
ST vs MR Head-to-Head Records
Matches Played | 19 |
|---|---|
GG Won | 8 |
ADKR Won | 10 |
Tied | 0 |
No Result | 1 |
First-ever Fixture | December 30, 2011 |
Most-recent Fixture | December 30, 2024 |
Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades Team Preview & Squads
Sydney Thunder
David Warner’s leadership remains the defining influence on this Thunder side. As captain and key batter, his approach sets the tone for the powerplay and dictates tempo. However, repeated defeats suggest that the team has not converted starts into match control. Warner’s challenge is not merely to score but to structure innings around partnerships that stabilize a fragile middle order.
From a batting perspective, Thunder’s lineup has experience and versatility, with Warner at the top supported by names such as Cameron Bancroft, Sam Billings, and Nic Maddinson. Youngsters like Sam Konstas and Oliver Davies add upside but also volatility. The problem has been consistency: 180 against Brisbane Heat was competitive, yet the inability to apply scoreboard pressure underscores the need for better pacing through overs 7–15.
Bowling and all-round depth remains Thunder’s theoretical strength. Chris Green leads the spin department with control, while Daniel Sams provides balance across phases. Pat Cummins, Lockie Ferguson, Reece Topley, and Tanveer Sangha give them multiple pace and variation options. Yet, execution has lagged behind planning. Unless their bowlers convert opportunities during the middle overs, Thunder risk another narrow defeat.
Sydney Thunder Squads
Sydney Thunder
David Warner, Wes Agar, Charlie Anderson, Tom Andrews, Cameron Bancroft, Sam Billings, Pat Cummins, Oliver Davies, Lockie Ferguson, Matthew Gilkes, Chris Green, Ryan Hadley, Sam Konstas, Nic Maddinson, Nathan McAndrew, Blake Nikitaras, Aidan O’Connor, Daniel Sams, Tanveer Sangha, Shadab Khan, Reece Topley
Melbourne Renegades
Will Sutherland’s leadership emphasizes structure and discipline. As both captain and key all-rounder, his value lies in maintaining tactical clarity, especially during bowling rotations.
Batting-wise, Melbourne Renegades rely on aggressive intent from Josh Brown, with complementary options in Mohammad Rizwan, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Tim Seifert, and Caleb Jewell. Their innings against Stars lacked sustained momentum beyond early aggression, exposing vulnerability if power hitters fall cheaply. However, this lineup remains capable of exploiting any looseness in the field or erratic bowling spells.
Their bowling unit is deeper and more varied. Hassan Khan provides wicket-taking threat, supported by experienced operators such as Jason Behrendorff, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Nathan Lyon, and Gurinder Sandhu. This combination allows Renegades to attack in both the powerplay and middle overs. If they apply early pressure on Warner and control Thunder’s middle order, Melbourne Renegades can dictate match tempo.
Melbourne Renegades Squads
Melbourne Renegades
Will Sutherland, Jason Behrendorff, Josh Brown, Harry Dixon, Brendan Doggett, Sam Elliott, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Hassan Khan, Caleb Jewell, Nathan Lyon, Mohammad Rizwan, Fergus O’Neill, Oliver Peake, Tom Rogers, William Salzmann, Gurinder Sandhu, Tim Seifert, Matthew Spoors, Callum Stow, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa
ST vs MR Prediction
Event | Sydney Thunder | Melbourne Renegades |
|---|---|---|
Toss Winner | Sydney Thunder | – |
Player of the Match | – | Josh Brown |
Top Run Scorer | David Warner | Josh Brown |
Top Wicket Taker | Chris Green | Hassan Khan |
Most Sixes | David Warner | Josh Brown |
Predicted Score | 160+ | 170+ |
Win Probability | 49% | 51% |
According to cricket analysts, Melbourne Renegades have a 51% chance of Winning.
Disclaimer: This cricket prediction reflects the author’s personal insights and analysis. We encourage readers to review the points shared and draw their own conclusions.
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